A recent prognostication says that Valentine's Day won't be sweet for three industries that have their own enclaves and employ tens of thousands of workers in Downtown Los Angeles.
An overall decline in year-to-year spending is expected to bring another tough stretch for retailers and wholesalers in the Fashion District, Jewelry District and Flower Mart.
Valentine's Day will generate an estimated $28.6 billion in sales nationwide, according to IBISWorld, a New York-based industry research publisher. That total represents a 4.8% drop in spending for the February 14 holiday compared to last year, and a 6.8% dip from two years earlier. The expected decline offers little relief for retailers and wholesalers who are still feeling the effects of sales declines for the recent year-end holiday period.
The garment trade is expected to see the sharpest decline among categories tracked by IBISWorld, with a 6.7% dip in sales of clothing and intimate apparel from a year ago, to an estimated $4.5 billion nationwide this year.
Jewelry sales are expected to fall by nearly as much on a year-to-year basis, with spending for Valentine's Day dipping by 5.1%, to approximately $1.5 billion nationwide.
Sales of flowers are expected to decline by 2%, according to IBISWorld, for a total of $475 million.
Also expected to see year-to-year declines are restaurants, with a 6.1% decline expected to bring total spending on dining out for Valentine's Day to an estimated $11.5 billion. IBISWorld said that hospitality providers would see a 3.5% decline — for a total of approximately $3.5 billion in spending on "romantic getaways" for Valentine's Day.
A couple of Valentine's Day standards — greeting cards and candy — are expected to be the exceptions to the downward trend. IBISWorld estimates that sales of greeting cards will increase by 1.1% for this Valentine's Day, to approximately $2.6 billion, with candy expected to eke out a gain of 0.9%, to just less than $2.8 billion.
Sam Hassan is a writer for the L.A. Garment & Citizen.
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